Solar Payback Calculator — Victoria (2026)
Victoria removed its mandated minimum feed-in tariff on 1 July 2025, so exported power now earns almost nothing — and self-consumption is the whole story. This calculator is pre-set with Melbourne's 2026 prices, tariffs and yield. Adjust any input and the result updates instantly. Figures are for Victoria, Australia, in 2026.
In Victoria, a 6.6 kW solar system pays back in about 4.4 years — the slowest mainland state: it costs about $6,930 after the $1,801 STC rebate, generates about 8,910 kWh a year, and saves about $1,561 a year — roughly a 23% annual return and about $24,291 net over 20 years. The slower payback reflects VIC's near-zero feed-in tariff, lower yield and higher install price. Change your system size, power price and daytime usage below to recompute for your home.
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Your estimated payback
In Victoria, a 6.6 kW system pays back in about 4.4 years, saving about $1,561 a year for a net cost of about $6,930 after rebates.
Estimate only — not financial advice. Figures are indicative and depend on your retailer, usage pattern and final install quote.
Victoria after the feed-in tariff collapse
Victoria is the state where the 2026 solar reality is starkest. On 1 July 2025 the Essential Services Commission stopped setting a mandated minimum feed-in tariff, dropping the legal floor for exported solar to effectively $0. Retailers now set their own buyback rates voluntarily, and the result is a market where the average minimum offer is around 1.1 cents per kilowatt-hour and only the most competitive plans reach roughly 7 cents. For a household that exports a lot of midday power, that is close to giving it away. The headline consequence: in Victoria, solar value comes entirely from self-consumption — the retail electricity you avoid buying — and almost nothing from exports.
That makes Victoria the slowest mainland state for payback, at about 4.4 years for a typical 6.6 kW system at 60% daytime self-use, against roughly 2.8 years in South Australia. Three things drag VIC's number out. First, the feed-in tariff is now near zero. Second, Victoria has the lowest generation yield of the mainland capitals — Melbourne gets about 4.0 peak-sun-hours a day, producing around 1,350 kWh per installed kW per year, well below sunnier Brisbane or Perth. Third, install prices are a little higher, in the $950 to $1,150 per kilowatt band after the STC rebate, so a quality 6.6 kW system lands near $6,500 to $7,000 net.
The Solar Homes rebate still helps upfront
Victoria layers a state incentive on top of the federal STC rebate. Solar Victoria's Solar Homes program offers a rebate of about $1,400 on a solar panel system for eligible owner-occupiers — broadly, households with income under about $210,000 — plus an optional interest-free loan to spread the remaining cost. That state rebate is means-tested and its amount changes periodically, but for eligible homes it meaningfully cuts the net price and shortens payback. (This calculator models the after-STC net price; if you qualify for the Solar Homes rebate, subtract it from your install quote before entering your $/kW.)
Why self-consumption now decides everything in VIC
Because exporting earns almost nothing, the single most powerful lever for a Victorian household is how much of its generation it uses on-site. Running the dishwasher, washing machine, pool pump and electric hot water during daylight, pre-cooling or pre-heating the house in the afternoon, and timing EV charging for the middle of the day can lift self-consumption from 30% to 60% or more — and that single change can cut a year or more off payback without spending a cent more on hardware. A battery is the other route: it stores otherwise-worthless midday export and discharges it in the evening, and the federal Cheaper Home Batteries rebate (~$252 per usable kWh from 1 May 2026) lowers its upfront cost. In post-2025 Victoria, load-shifting and batteries matter more than anywhere a generous feed-in tariff once papered over low self-use.
The bottom line for a Melbourne household: solar still pays for itself, typically in the mid-four-year range, but the export era is over — your return is what you stop buying from the grid, not what you sell back to it.
Victoria solar figures — 2026
These are the indicative Melbourne-metro defaults this calculator uses for Victoria. You can override any of them above.
| Install price (after STC) | ~$1,050/kW ($950–$1,150 band) |
|---|---|
| Retail electricity price | ~27 c/kWh (among the lowest) |
| Feed-in tariff | ~3.3 c/kWh (no minimum since 1 Jul 2025; avg min ~1.1c) |
| Generation yield (Melbourne) | ~1,350 kWh per kW per year (lowest mainland) |
| STC zone rating | Zone 3 (1.382); alpine areas Zone 4 |
| State rebate | Solar Homes ~$1,400 (income <$210k) + interest-free loan |
| Typical payback (6.6 kW, 60% self-use) | ~4.4 years |
Victoria solar FAQ
Did Victoria scrap its solar feed-in tariff?
Yes. The Essential Services Commission stopped setting a mandated minimum from 1 July 2025, so the legal floor is effectively $0. Retailers set their own rates; the average minimum offer is around 1.1c/kWh, with some plans up to ~7c. Exported power now earns very little, so payback depends on self-consumption.
How fast does solar pay back in Victoria in 2026?
A 6.6 kW system in Melbourne costs about $6,930 after the $1,801 STC rebate and saves roughly $1,561 a year at ~27c/kWh with 60% daytime self-use, paying back in about 4.4 years — the slowest mainland state, due to low feed-in, lower yield and higher install prices.
What is the Victorian Solar Homes rebate?
Solar Victoria's Solar Homes program offers a rebate of about $1,400 for eligible owner-occupiers (household income under about $210,000), plus an optional interest-free loan. It stacks on the federal STC rebate. Amounts and eligibility are set by Solar Victoria and change periodically.
Is solar still worth it in Victoria after the feed-in cut?
For most owner-occupiers, yes — but the return now comes entirely from avoiding retail purchases. At 60% self-use, payback is around 4.4 years; for a home empty all day it is longer, and a battery or load-shifting becomes more important than ever.
Compare with other states
Compare payback across every state on the hub. South Australia →
The wedge contrast: highest tariffs, fastest payback (~2.8 years). New South Wales →
Bigger installed base; IPART feed-in benchmark explained. Queensland →
Cheapest installs, strong sun, payback ~2.7 years.
Methodology & sources
Data last verified: · formula_version 2026.1
This calculator uses the self-consumption-dominant model that reflects 2026 conditions. The formula is:
- STC rebate = system kW × zone rating (1.382) × deeming years (5) × STC price ($39.50)
- Net cost = system kW × install $/kW (your after-STC price); a battery adds its capex net of the Cheaper Home Batteries rebate
- Annual generation = system kW × generation per kW per year (Melbourne ~1,350)
- Annual savings = self-used kWh × power price + exported kWh × feed-in tariff (+ battery arbitrage value)
- Payback = net cost ÷ annual savings
Worked example (Victoria default): 6.6 kW × 1.382 × 5 × $39.50 ≈ $1,801 rebate. Generation ≈ 6.6 × 1,350 = 8,910 kWh/yr. At 60% self-use and 27c/kWh, plus 40% export at 3.3c, annual savings ≈ $1,561. Net cost ≈ $6,930 → payback ≈ 4.4 years.
Key solar terms, defined
- Solar payback period
- The number of years it takes for the money a system saves to add up to its net cost — net cost divided by annual savings.
- Self-consumption
- The share of the power your panels generate that you use on-site instead of exporting; in post-2025 Victoria it is almost the entire return.
- STC rebate
- The federal small-scale technology certificate discount, claimed by your installer as an upfront price cut on the panels.
- Deeming period
- The number of future years of generation the STC scheme credits you for upfront — 5 years in 2026, dropping by one each year to 2030.
- Feed-in tariff
- What your retailer pays for exported solar; Victoria removed its mandated minimum on 1 July 2025, so it is now set voluntarily and is near zero.
Sources
- STC price & deeming — Clean Energy Regulator (clearing-house $40 ex-GST; deeming 5 yr in 2026), pulled 2026-06-27.
- Install prices — SolarChoice Price Index, June 2026 (VIC $950–$1,150/kW).
- Electricity price — Canstar average price per kWh (VIC among the lowest).
- Feed-in tariff — Essential Services Commission Victoria: no minimum from 1 Jul 2025; avg min ~1.1c 2025–26.
- Generation yield — SolarChoice / Bureau of Meteorology peak-sun-hours (Melbourne ~4.0 PSH).
- State rebate — Solar Victoria — Solar Homes program (~$1,400, means-tested) + DCCEEW Cheaper Home Batteries.
We re-check these figures on a regular schedule and update the verified date only when a value genuinely changes. Estimate only — not financial advice.